I Have Seen The Future. It Is Bleak...

...but more about the Golden Globes under the cut. Plus, Producers Guild of America nominations, and some obsessive Oscar stuff.

The Golden Globes aired last night in truncated form to less than stellar results. Being a west coaster I knew the winners before the broadcast but thought I'd check it out anyway. I lasted all of ten minutes before being driven away by the pointless drivel coming out of the mouths of the Access Hollywood crew. If anything, this is just further proof of why Hollywood needs its writers and needs to resolve the WGA strike like yesterday. Should it carry on, I'm hoping tbe Academy comes up with something better - anything would be better - and not repeat of the idiocy from last night. But I digress, last night's winners were:

Best Picture (Drama): Atonement
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy): Sweeney Todd
Best Director: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Best Actress (Drama): Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)
Best Screenplay: Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)
Best Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

As an Oscar forecaster the Globes are essentially... useless. The votes for Oscar nominees have already been cast and will be announced next week, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the voting body for the Globes, has absolutely no association with the Academy. Anyway, I realized last night that I don't even put any stock into who the HFPA choose, and that really the only reason I watch every year is for the drunken celebrity speeches.

And now for an award that actually does tell us something about the state of the race, the nominees for the PGA:

Theatrical Motion Picture
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Animated Theatrical Motion Picture
Bee Movie
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture
Body of War
Hear and Now
Pete Seeger: The Power of Song
Sicko
White Light/Black Rain

So, focusing on the way the critics and other precursor awards have played out, here's how the race is looking:

Best Picture

No Country For Old Men leads in terms of awards won, followed closely by The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. It should, however, be noted that nearly all the awards given to Diving Bell have been as Foreign Language Film, an Oscar category for which it is not eligible.

In third is There Will Be Blood and forth finds, appropriately, four films that have each won one precursor award: Atonement (Golden Globe – Drama), Sweeney Todd (Golden Globe – Musical/Comedy), Juno (Golden Satellite – Musical/Comedy), and The Assassination of Jesse James (San Fransisco Film Critics).

The fact of Tony Gilroy and Sean Penn receiving Directors Guild Nominations and their films receiving Producers Guild Nominations puts Michael Clayton and Into The Wild firmly in the running.

Current Prediction:
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Into The Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: with No Country a lock and The Diving Bell looking pretty solid, I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Atonement

Best Director

Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men) are way in the lead in terms of awards won. PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood) follows and is followed in turn by Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly). Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd) is in fourth, having won the National Board of Review award for Best Director.

Of the above, Burton is the only one that didn’t get nominated for the DGA. He still has a chance, but not getting that nomination makes the chance very slim indeed. Sean Penn (Into The Wild) and Tony Gilroy did get DGA nominations, which makes their chances considerably better despite not winning any precursor awards.

Current Prediction:
PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Sean Penn (Into The Wild)
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: I'm not holding my breath but it would make my day to see either Sidney Lumet (Before The Devil Knows You're Dead) or Sarah Polley (Away From Her) nominated.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) has dominated the Best Actor race, followed by George Clooney (Michael Clayton). Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) pulls in third, followed by Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd), Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) and Frank Langella (Starting Out In The Evening).

Current Prediction:
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsh (Into The Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: Without a doubt Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl).

Best Actress

Julie Christie (Away From Her), Ellen Page (Juno) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) are the only actresses who have been winning any of the precursor awards.

Current Prediction:
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: As long as Marion Cotillard is nominated, I'll be happy.

Best Supporting Actress

The race has largely belonged to Amy Ryan (Gone, Baby, Gone), with Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) putting up a good fight in second place. Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) comes in third, and the only other actress to be named Best Supporting Actress by any voting body is Allison Janney (Juno).

Current Prediction:
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Catherine Keener (Into The Wild)
Saorise Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone, Baby, Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: they're all good.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men) leads the precursor awards, with Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James) coming in second. Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) is in third, and Vlad Ivanov (4 months, 3 weeks and 2 days) is in fourth, having won the Los Angeles Film Critics award for Supporting Actor.

Current Prediction:
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James)
Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)
Hal Holbrook (Into The Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Contender I Most Want To See Nominated: Tommy Lee Jones (No Country For Old Men).